Morning Seminar – Oct 10^th – National Gallery, Dublin 10am

Assessing the Risks

Energy Security and the Global Economy

Dr. Roger Bentley [slides]

Prof. Robert Ayres [slides]

Dr. Michael Kumhof [slides]

Following up on our June seminar Energy Security and Competitiveness in a Rapidly Changing World, our next seminar expands on the recent warning from the IMF, published in their April 2011 World Economic Outlook, on the risks of oil scarcity to the global economy.

Access to affordable, reliable, and sustainable energy is a matter of national security, particularly so for a state such as Ireland, heavily dependent on increasingly expensive imported fossil fuels. Since the last seminar we have seen the unprecedented release by the International Energy Agency of their strategic oil reserve in an attempt to ease pressure on rising prices, further oil price volatility, and continuing economic stagnation in Europe and the US.

Dr. Michael Kumhof, a Deputy Chief at the International Monetary Fund will present his latest research on energy augmented macroeconomic models which formed the basis of Chapter 3 of the IMF’s April World Economic Outlook, entitled ‘Oil Scarcity, Growth, and Global Imbalances’. This work is a noteworthy departure from classical economic growth modeling methodologies. He will be joined by Dr. Robert Ayres (INSEAD) and Dr. Roger Bentley (UK ERC), whose respective work on the role of energy in economic growth and oil production forecasts, were referenced in the IMF study.

This seminar will highlight how

• traditional models of economic growth exclude energy as a factor of production
• present a new model incorporating energy as a factor of production (Ayres)
• present an overview of a comprehensive study of future oil production forecasts and their attendant risks (Bentley)
• an updated IMF model for economic growth incorporating oil and considering different future availability scenarios (Kumhof)

	Dr. Michael Kumhof Deputy Chief, Modeling Unit, Research Department, International Monetary Fund	Dr. Kumhof prepared the economic model and ran the oil supply scenarios published in Chapter 3 of the IMF’s April 2011 World Economic Outlook.He will present his latest work on the impact of different future oil availability scenarios on economic growth.
	Dr. Robert U. AyresProfessor Emeritus, INSEAD	Prof. Ayres is a co-author of The Economic Growth Engine: How Energy and Work Drive Material Prosperity and Crossing the Energy Divide: Moving from Fossil Fuel Dependence to a Clean-Energy Future. He has published ground-breaking research into the role of energy in determining economic growth, raising fundamental questions about our conventional models for economic prosperity.
	Dr. Roger BentleyUniversity of Reading	Dr. Bentley is a leading expert in energy and oil production forecasts. He co-authored Global Oil Depletion (2009), a report commissioned by the UK Energy Research Council. He has studied the often controversial debate on oil production forecasts since the oil crises of the 1970’s and attended the IEA’s meeting in 1997 on oil reserves which formed the warning in their 1998 World Energy Outlook, a warning repeated in their 2008 WEO.

ASPO Ireland has teamed up with SEAI, who will host the event.